According to the latest data modelling, climate change is likely to have the strongest impact on Scandinavian countries such as Denmark, Norway and Sweden. These 3 countries currently have 1 of the highest qualities of life amongst developed nations. According to the latest estimates they expect temperatures to rise by more than 6 Degrees Celsius in the next 70 years. The estimates also expect more precipitation that may lead to more flooding as is currently being experienced by Europe.
Records show temperatures have increased in Europe – but what changes can we expect to see in the future? Experts at the European Environment Agency (EEA) have produced a series of maps showing projected changes in temperature and precipitation for this century.
The maps have been produced in Eye on Earth, a global public information service which allows users to integrate many different kinds of information, for example combining different map layers.
Europe will be on average 1.5° C warmer in the period 2021-2050 than the period 1960-1990, according to the ensemble of regional climate projections from the ENSEMBLES project. The highest warming is projected over the eastern Scandinavia, and southern and south-eastern Europe. All areas of the continent will warm by a minimum of approximately 0.4° C and a maximum of 2.5° C, the projections indicate.
Annual temperature changes 2021 – 2050.
Looking further ahead to the period 2071-2100, the models predict that Europe will be on average 3 °C warmer than 1960-1990. In north eastern Scandinavia the temperature change could be up to 6° C higher than the reference period, while the Mediterranean basin and parts of Eastern Europe will also see much bigger changes than elsewhere. All areas are expected to see average annual temperatures at least 1.5° C warmer than the reference period.
Interestingly, there are great differences between summer and winter – the maps show the winters will see the greatest change in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, while the biggest temperature increases in the summer will be around the Mediterranean.
While a few degrees increase may not seem significant, it is important to note that these are average annual temperatures, potentially masking large extremes. For example, during the period 2021 – 2050 summer in some parts of the Mediterranean is expected to be upto 2.5° C warmer than 1961-1990. Higher temperatures lead to an increase in number of heat waves and droughts, which have great impact on water supply, agriculture production and human health.
Source: European Environment Agency
What do you think about these latest estimates? Are they accurate? Do you think that climate change will affect your quality of life? Would you consider moving to countries “exposed” to the affects of climate change?
Which countries will be the least affected by climate change? Possibly countries closer to the equator and located on large continents?